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Thursday, 29 November 2012

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The Reds have reportedly signed veteran closer Jonathan Broxton to a 3-year $21 million deal. Never mind the fact that seven million dollars a season is way above market for twenty eight year old slightly above average closer with two aberrational all-star games on his resumé, the Reds have an elite closer on staff in Aroldis Chapman. If you haven't heard of Chapman, he is a Cuban phenom who already has an all-star game appearance under his belt at 24 years old and throws absolute bullets. At the age of 22, he set the record for fastest pitch ever thrown in a game when he clocked in at 105 mph against the Padres. Consistently cracking the 100 mph threshold, Chapman worked his way to 38 saves and a 1.51 ERA last season, good enough for 8th place in Cy Young voting. The acquisition of Broxton is a clear sign that Aroldis' days in the bullpen are over and he is going to enter the rotation, probably with the role of ace in mind.

I actually find Dusty Baker to be one of the best managers in the MLB, but this decision is crazy. Sure, a starter is almost always a greater asset than a closer. It only makes sense, as starters can give you upward of 7 innings per appearance and a closer is essentially there to record three outs. On the other hand, if you are lucky enough to get an elite, long term closer, you have the greatest asset in baseball. No player has been more important to their team in the past 20 years than Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. The Sandman has effectively guaranteed that if opposing teams want to score, they have eight innings to do so, because the ninth inning belongs to him. He is baseball's version of football's QB kneel or basketball's four corners offense, he ends the game early. Rivera entered the league as an outfielder and the Yankees farm system soon after tried to move him to the rotation, but the Yankees saw what they had in him and put him where he belongs, the same place that Chapman belongs: the bullpen.

There is no real history to draw from since there has never been a pitcher quite like Chapman, but the Reds could learn from what the Yankees did with former reliever and current rehab frequent flier Joba Chamberlain. Joba threw darts as a closer, routinely hitting the high 90s and able to elevate his game to 100 flat when he needed a put-away pitch. Instead of keeping him as Mo's setup man, reducing opposing teams' scoring opportunities from 8 innings to 7, the Yankees decided to put him in the rotation. When a pitcher is throwing 200 innings instead of 70, he can't rely on his fastball every pitch, especially since he is bound to lose a few mph on it. Since the moment the Yankees moved him to the rotation and created the dreaded "Joba Rules", Chamberlain's career has essentially fizzled into perennial injury and plain disappointment. Chapman, like Joba, does not have the off-speed stuff or the pinpoint accuracy to fool hitters for 7 innings, instead, he can blow the ball by them before they get a chance to adjust.

The Reds are built to be a long term contender, so why not give themselves a chance to have what the Yankees had in Rivera? Aroldis may do fine as a starter, but it is nothing compared to what he could have given the team coming out of the pen.

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