Incompetence, Ignorance, Injustice, Irrationality and a Lot of Luck: The True BCS Forumula

In the new BCS standings, Notre Dame is ranked no.1 and is assured of a BCS title shot as long as they beat the slumping and hobbled USC Trojans. This seems like the least controversial thing ever. I bet it took the BCS voters about a half-second to fill in the name atop their lists. I mean Notre Dame is 12-0…. Or are they?

            On October 13^th, Stepfan Taylor held the ball out over the goal line in South Bend in order to send the game to another overtime (as pictured above), but the referees apparently did not see it that way. This one dubious call has had far reaching consequences. If Stanford had gone onto win that game, then it would be them, instead of Notre Dame who would be in the national title conversation. After watching Stanford’s defense shut down the previously unstoppable Oregon Ducks and witnessing the poise of quarterback Zach Hogan and the skills of running back Stepfan Taylor, it is not hard to imagine talking heads raving about how they had earned their spot in the national title game.

            This unfortunate situation for Stanford fans underlines the random nature of college football and an unjust practice of BCS voters. First of all, one must marvel at how that one call and dozens of other crucial plays in that game have permanently altered the nature of the national title chase. We spend so much time arguing about who is the best and who “deserves” the national title, but whoever we end up crowning will probably end up having luck to thank more than any true superiority of skill. All of us choose to ignore this fact so we can declare a champion and forget about the inherent ambiguity of results from small sample sizes.

            While BCS voters can’t fix that problem, they can do one thing to ameliorate the influence of luck on poll results. When questionable game-ending calls like the Stepfan Taylor touchdown (the “Bush Push” is an example ND fans might prefer) occur, voters should decide for themselves whether the call was correct or not. If they believe the call was incorrect, they should rank as if the call had been correct. For example, if one believed that Taylor did score, they would rank as if Notre Dame was 10-0-1 and Stanford was 9-1-1, because the score would have been tied after the touchdown. Under the current method, a voter who truly believed that Notre Dame and Stanford played to a draw ranks as if Notre Dame was the clear victor, even though he/she knows that is not true. This makes no sense. For some reason, our sports culture has made it sacrilege to ignore the capriciousness of referees when ranking even though this would lead to better results. I am not sure if the computer formulas could be made to account for such questionable calls, but the voters have the opportunity and the duty to prevent the failures of referees from having far-reaching consequences.

In the case of Stanford and Notre Dame, voters might still keep Notre Dame atop the standings with the new method, but Stanford would certainly have to move up in the rankings. In the latest AP Top 25 poll, Stanford is behind LSU and Texas A&M, two teams that have two losses. I urge voters who believe that Stanford should only be 9-1-1 and to correct their polls next week in order to reflect their rightful record rather than their official record. This gesture will not guarantee that the “right” champion will be crowned, but it will move us slightly closer to a more just system in college football.