Melkman Goes North: The Melky Cabrera Deal

 

An Angry, Angry Melky

How did Melky Cabrera command $8 million a year? That seems to be the question after hearing that the unpredictable, previously-suspended player has reached a 2-year/$16 million contract with the apparent free spending Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto is receiving no bargain at all with this deal because they have no idea which version of Melky Cabrera they are acquiring. Though he was extremely, but consistently, mediocre with the Yankees as he began his career, Melky Cabrera has been a very different player over each the past three seasons. While he got progressively better over these seasons, I do not think "The Melkman" is a player who is finally reaching his peak or developing into a star. Cabrera bottomed out after his time with the Yankees, posting a career-low.255/.317/.354 line that was below replacement level. He then received a small-time contract with the small-time Kansas City Royals, a team that acquires many players looking for second chances and overhyped-and-bust prospects in the free agency market. He had a great season in KC, posting a .305/.339/.470 line, and was shipped to the San Francisco Giants for Jonathan Sanchez in the most lopsided trade of last year.

Cabrera's performance in San Fran was just straight up unprecedented. His .346/.390/.516 line threw him into the MVP race, and he even won the All Star Game MVP award. For just about all of the time before he was suspended, Cabrera carried the Giants offense. Buster Posey is absolutely and undoubtedly a star, but he really turned it on and made his push for the NL MVP after Cabrera's suspension. So, yes, Melky is a guy capable of carrying a lineup, but can he do that without PED's? Because the answer to that question is somewhere between yes and no, $8 million a year is a complete overpay for a team that just added a historically large amount of payroll in the trade market.

While you have to laud the Blue Jays finally trading for Major League players and making an effort to sign somewhat marquee players in the free agency market, this is a ridiculous contract. Additionally, it is way too early in the offseason for this type of contract to go to this type of player. There was no reason for the Jays to hand out this contract right now, if at all. They could have easily waited out the market for outfielders, making offers like the one they gave Cabrera to almost any outfielder outside of Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, and Michael Bourn. A player like Ryan Ludwick, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino may not have the same potential to hit .346, but, then again, is Melky Cabrera a .346 hitter, or a PED-fueled juice head? At this point in his development as a player, I do not think anyone really knows who this guy really is.

The Jays are also in a state of fluctuation as a franchise. I cannot say without a doubt that this team is going to be a seriously strong contender in 2013, but they certainly will be right there with the rest of the powers of the American League East. Some might contest that this offseason for the Jays is becoming exactly what the last one was for the Marlins, a team who spent big in the offseason, overpaid some solid but unspectacular players, and  dismantled their roster during and after the season. But, realistically, the Blue Jays front office and ownership appears to be much more financially and generally stable then the Marlins' (Jeffrey Loria, I'm looking at you).

Prospect Travis d'Arnaud

However, that is not to say that the Jays have everything in place for a magical run. This team is one that, even after this deal and their huge trade, still has holes to fill at first base, a catching job that has multiple candidates, but no predetermined starter, and a rotation whose success hinges on some unpredictable starters. Adam Lind is not an everyday first baseman, and his demotion to the minors last season would have lasted longer if the Jays had been in any kind of contention. Last years starting catcher J.P. Arencibia could be the starter, backup, or trade bait, as the inevitable ascension of top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is around the corner, and the newly-acquired John Buck is more than capable as a backup. Of course, the handling of all these remaining issues on the field is still completely up in the air, as Toronto has not hired a manager.

 

The Blue Jays will win a lot of games in 2013. That much is almost for sure. But, whether or not Melky Cabrera will help them win games remains to be seen. He could be a great player who turns out to be a bargain at $8 million, keep up his All Star status, and make a lot more money after this deal is up. However, that does not seem likely. It appears that, in some capacity at least, Cabrera will be a slightly overpaid outfielder for a very good team.