Why I Laughed at Nick Swisher's Contract

He's not being overpaid. To the dismay of many Yankee fans, Nick Swisher is actually worth $14 million a year, at least for the moment. He has an option that will "easily vest," so he should be on his new contract until he is 37 years old. At that point, he will likely be overpaid, but for the next few years, Swisher's patience at the plate should allow him to escape a harsh decline. I am noting only that Swisher signed a deal that pays him roughly what he is worth. The fact that the Cleveland Indians handed out this deal, however, is laughable.

With Swisher in tow, here is the current projected 2013 Indians lineup:

LF Michael Brantley
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
C/1B Carlos Santana
RF Nick Swisher
1B/DH Mark Reynolds
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
CF Drew Stubbs
DH Mike Aviles/Yan Gomes

Cleveland's new RF, Nick Swisher

Taking recent statistical production into consideration, this lineup does not look like it is going to produce enough to offset the horrible rotation Cleveland rolled out in 2012. Even with the addition of Trevor Bauer and getting back Carlos Carrasco from Tommy John surgery, the 2013 rotation will not be a good one for the Tribe. This lineup will not offset their pitching enough to thrust the Indians back into contention. The problem with the Swisher deal, however, is that Cleveland's young players do not project to reach their potential until after most of the rightfielder's value is gone. Barring that Cabrera keeps up his good-to-very-good production, the rises of Santana, Brantley, Kipnis, Chisenhall, and (hopefully) Stubbs will probably not coincide for at least two or three years. By then, Swisher will be about 35, not exactly a ripe age for productivity. I just don't see why the Indians felt that this was the year to hand out a big deal. They just got Travis Hafner off their books. They have to deal with the, um, interesting pitcher that "ace" Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be. They have to figure out what to do with All Star closer Chris Perez, whose intensity is rivaled only by his fastball. Turning Shin-Soo Choo's walk year into Bauer and Stubbs was a great move, but each comes with their own issues. This Indians team has a lot of talent, but just as many, if not more, question marks. 

Another Indians acquisition, manager Terry Francona

Nick Swisher is also not a player that leads an offense. His approach is great, and his trademark patience would be great to teach to younger players (especially Stubbs), but Swisher is much more of a second-or-third-best hitter on a contender. He's a player the front office brings in to stabilize the offense, to give that one final push to form a contending lineup. He does not fill that role for the Indians. While new manager Terry Francona was brought in to lead a group of young players, Cleveland appears to want Swisher to be more of a veteran player leader. However, an outfielder who responded to poor postseason performance by calling out Yankee fans does not exactly scream "captain material." That Swisher does not perform well in the postseason, noted duly by Bombers fans who wanted him gone, is also a cause for concern for the Tribe. In the unlikely case that Cleveland makes the postseason, they will have a lineup filled with playoff first timers. Certain players tend to perform better than their regular numbers, and certain players tend to perform worse. The Indians youngsters will form an unpredictable postseason lineup, and Swisher's October woes can only harm their level of production.

The general problem with Swisher's contract is the timing. From multiple perspectives, Cleveland should not have handed out this deal right now. While they traded away Shin-Soo Choo, a prominent Indian for a number of years, the bottom line is that Swisher is not a franchise player. Bringing in Swisher now will just make his deal an albatross when Cleveland's young players are ready to form a contending lineup. I don't see this one turning out well for the Indians.