Pitches and Riches: Thoughts on Recent Free Agent Pitcher Deals

While the top few 2012 free agents remain on the market, the start of the free agency process has seen some key players already sign contracts. Some players opted for greener pastures (Torii Hunter), while others have jumped at some unexpected money for another go-around (Melky Cabrera). The trend for pitchers early on, though, has been money, and lots of it. Multiple pitchers not named Zack Greinke have already landed multi-year deals for over a $10 million AAS (average annual salary). Here are my reactions to some recent hurler contracts.

Player: Team/ Money (millions)/ Length (years)

RHP Hiroki Kuroda: New York Yankees/$15/1

2012: 16-11, 3.32 ERA, 219.2 IP, 167 K, 51 BB

He's back...

The best Yankee pitcher in 2012 has signed on for another venture in 2013. While manager Joe Girardi and GM Brian Cashman sound like this will be Kuroda's second, but final, year in pinstripes expect Kuroda to be CC Sabathia's copilot once again. Although many had suspicions about Kuroda's ability to succeed outside of the NL West, his 2012 season in New York was utterly impressive. He carried the rotation all year, allowing the team to keep rolling even as Sabathia hit the disabled list for the first time in his career and missed a solid chunk of the season. In 2012 Kuroda featured great fastball command with surprising velocity and movement for a 37-year-old. To continue his success in the AL East, he will need to continue to have that fastball.

For the Yankees, this signing is a great one, albeit at a high price. This step was the first in an offseason of great change for an organization that always contends. With the signing of their most important starter, Cashman can now focus on a new deal for Mariano Rivera, who will be back, just at a currently unknown price. Convincing Andy Pettitte Brett-Favre-style to come back for one more year can now be put into motion, and the team can look to fill its outfield and bench holes. Although he definitely does not make the league's oldest team any younger, Kuroda is just about the perfect pitcher for the Yankees organization right now: he's certainly expensive, but he's a great hurler, eats innings, and is on a one-year deal. The Hal Steinbrenner mandate to push the payroll under $189 million by 2014 seems to be in view. Simply put, retaining Hiroki Kuroda represents a huge win for the Yankees in free agency and allows them to move forward with the same great rotation from last year.

LHP Jeremy Affedlt: San Francisco Giants/$18/3

2012: 1-2, 2.70 ERA, 63.1 IP, 57 K, 23 BB

The market for relievers has certainly gone up in the past couple years. While General Managers used to put together the front end of their bullpens with players making somewhere around $1 million, it seems like every year the AAS for middle relievers is increasing. While good statistics from a middle reliever would seem like a justification for multi-year, multi-million dollar deals, there are a couple of aspects of the average middle reliever that need to be looked at. First, relievers have their jobs because they are not good enough pitchers to be starting pitchers. While starters will usually boast three or four Major League quality pitches by the time they hit the show, pitchers who profile as relievers usually center on one or two pitches. By the time a pitcher has gone once or twice through the order, hitters will kill pitchers who have only one or two offerings. Relievers as a position are also fickle. Not only is the modern bullpen changing, with evolutions like the Left Handed One Out Guy (LOOGY), but also time and time again we see relievers who do well in the first year of their deals flop thereafter.

In classic Giants bullpen fashion, Affeldt sports a nice beard

With these ideas in mind, you might want to call up GM Brian Sabean and ask him what he thinks he is doing handing out $6 million a year to a reliever when the Giants still have holes to fill in the outfield and second base and just signed ace Matt Cain to a huge contract (sorry Tim Lincecum). However, let's consider what Affedlt brings to the table. He's first and foremost a lefty reliever, which is a plus for any team to have, period. Even eventual World Champion teams sometimes struggle to find a reliable lefty out of the 'pen (the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals come to mind). Second, he does not have the extreme righty/lefty splits characteristic of many lefty relievers in today's game. This year, Affeldt allowed an On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) 30 points higher against righties (.621 vs. .656), making him valuable in just about any situation. While he does not feature any big splits, however, he is not exactly a classic lefty killer. Basically, he is a very good reliever. I do not believe that he deserves starter money for the next three years. He will be 36 at the end of the deal, when $6 million will almost certainly be an overpay. However, for the World Champion Giants, who are not a one-year-wonder kind of team, this deal could bring back some solid returns. Just don't expect Affeldt to completely live up to the money.

RHP Jeremy Guthrie: Kansas City Royals/$25/3

2012 with Rockies: 3-9, 6.35 ERA, 90.2 IP, 45 K, 31 BB

2012 with   Royals: 5-3, 3.16 ERA, 91.0 IP, 56 K, 19 BB

Guthrie in KC blue and white

Guthrie's long-anticipated move out of Baltimore and the AL East Beasts did not go as well as expected, by any measure. His short career with the Rockies featured performance under replacement level, and he was shipped out of Colorado faster than a homer at Coors without the humidor. He underperformed so much in Colorado that he was swapped for Jonathan Sanchez, who won ONE game last year with an ERA just over eight. However, the reason I posted his team-split statistics is pretty clear: he really pulled it together in Kansas City. In his half-season with KC, he pitched like a guy who deserves an AAS of $8.3 million. The question is if he can maintain that pace for an entire year, let alone three years. Guthrie has never been a pitcher who has raised eyebrows, but he has generally gotten the job done.

At face value, this deal really seems like a function of a common practice for bad teams. Teams like the Royals that do not win games will generally overpay mediocre players to bring some kind of star power to their teams and reel in any sort of fan base. However, I like this deal for the Royals. They have the most projectable offense in the league, in the sense that they feature numerous hitters that could develop into stars or superstars. Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, and Mike Moustakas come immediately to mind, and exceptional prospect Will Myers (37 HRs in the minors in 2012) looks ready to take over in right field. However, their superb system does not offer much in the major-league ready pitching department. This team has a great plan for the future, but in order to contend in 2013, KC needed some pitching, badly, especially with Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino, two potentially solid-to-very-good rotation members, on the mend from Tommy John surgery. While I am not willing to say that Guthrie sets their rotation, they are certainly on their way there. A rotation consisting of the newly acquired Ervin Santana, Guthrie, the ever-crafty Bruce Chen, and consistent disappointment Luke Hochevar would certainly be a step in the right direction. However, I would still look for GM Dayton Moore to go out and find another free agent starter or two, with someone like Kyle Lohse or Edwin Jackson at the top of their wish list.