The Statistical Argument Against Manti Te'o for the Heisman

Charles Woodson (1997)

There has only ever been one primarily defensive player to win the Heisman trophy and that is Charles Woodson in 1997. Woodson beat out Peyton Manning to win the award and put together one of the most impressive defensive seasons of all time. Since then, the highest a defensive player has finished is 4th. Many people are predicting that Manti Te'o will win the Heisman trophy this year, but his statistics should lead analysts to predict otherwise. Here is why:

Manti Te'o has put up phenomenal numbers on the season. He has 7 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 103 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 4 passes defended, and 4 QB hurries. These numbers are somewhat comparable to those of Tyran Mathieu last season. Mathieu did not have the same interception or tackle statistics but he did have 4 touchdowns on the year and electrified the country with his punt and kick returns. He finished the year with 6 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 2 fumbles returned for touchdowns, 2 punts returned for touchdowns, 59 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 9 passes defended, and 3 quarterback hurries. Essentially, Te'o and Mathieu are having similar years when all things are considered. Mathieu finished 5th in the Heisman voting.

In 2009, Ndamakung Suh finished 4th in voting. In that season Suh had 1 interception, 85 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, and 3 blocked kicks. These numbers are far more impressive than those of Mathieu's in 2011. The 12 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss show just how dominant Suh was in the 09 season. Suh was even more dominant in 2009 than Manti Te'o has been this season. The sack numbers indicate that opposing offensive lines simply could not handle him and the 3 blocked kicks further support that. Also, his ability to defend the pass as a Defensive Tackle/End bolstered his resumé.

This brings me now to Charles Woodson, the last and only defensive player to ever win a Heisman trophy. In the 1997 season he had 8 interceptions, 4 touchdowns, and 44 tackles. While those numbers may not jump out at you, they show just how much better Woodson was than anyone else in the country. He only had 44 tackles because opposing offenses would not even run the ball near him let alone pass it. When they did throw it to him, he would intercept the ball. Woodson was the best player in the country on the countries best team.

There is no doubt that Te'o is the best player on the amazing Notre Dame defense. However, given past defensive player finishes in Heisman voting, it would be a shock if Te'o wins the award. Ndamakung Suh had the best season since 1997, arguably better than Woodson's and he only finished in 4th place. With the growing appreciation and love for quarterback play in college football (10 of the past 12 winners have been QB's), voters will be more likely to favor Johnny Manziel or Braxton Miller.

I am not saying that Manti Te'o did not have a GREAT season. He did. He led Notre Dame on and off the field and is one of the main reasons they are the number 1 team in the country and are playing in the BCS Championship Game. I am just saying that given past history and how the voters tend to vote, it seems unlikely that he would win when somebody like Tyrann Matheiu or Ndamakung Suh didn't even come close. There was a great chance that Te'o would win the Heisman trophy just a few weeks ago when Collin Klein fell out of contention and "Johnny Football" hadn't swept the nation. But, just as quickly as K-State and Oregon lost, Te'o fell back in the race.

Manti Te'o will be in New York, and will most likely finish second in the voting, which has to be considered a win for defensive players everywhere. After all he has gone through and had to endure there is not one person who cannot be happy to see this. The future is bright for Manti and I truly believe that it will not be long before another defender holds up the trophy as the newest member of the Heisman fraternity (Jadaveon Clowney).