Is Anibal Sanchez Worth $16 Million a Year?

Free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez signed a five-year, $80 million contract with the Detroit Tigers a while back. The general opinion on Sanchez's deal is that the righty was completely and utterly overpaid. The Tigers have countered this notion by proclaiming Sanchez a pitcher "in his prime." Comparisons to other players with his new yearly salary, though, make him an interesting, unpredictable case to consider in Detroit's future.

Take a look at the following list of active MLB pitchers, all of whom have an AAS in the $16 million range:

A.J. Burnett
John Lackey
Anibal Sanchez
Felix Hernandez
C.J. Wilson

LA Angels LHP C.J. Wilson

Of these pitchers, we can count out Hernandez, but not because he happens to be the best pitcher (by far) out of these hurlers. Hernandez is the only player on this list that signed his deal with less than six years of MLB service time. That is, he is the only one on this list who did not sign his deal as a free agent. That's especially important considering that teams usually try to sign their young, extremely talented players early on in their careers in order to avoid huge sums awarded in the arbitration process down the road. Considering the four guys left, Burnett was a huge bust in New York, even getting shipped out of town in a trade to Pittsburgh, who only paid him $13 million in 2012. After his stellar 2009 postseason, Yankees fans came to dread the days Burnett would take the hill for the Bombers. Lackey has also been a bust thus far for Boston and is on the mend from Tommy John surgery. He's been so terrible that the case has been easily made that he is more valuable out of the rotation, and on the DL, than as a member of Boston's five. As for Wilson, the jury is still out on the fairness of his deal. The pitcher that began 2012 with a 2.43 ERA certainly earned his salary, but Wilson faded heavily in the second half of the season, pitching to a 5.54 ERA. 2013 should be an interesting season for the Ranger-turned-Angel as he could become a fan favorite or an overpaid scapegoat for Los Angeles.

Sanchez will be in Detroit for the next half-decade

That brings us to Sanchez. Traded from the Marlins to the Tigers, he put up numbers at about his career norms during the regular season (3.74 ERA/1.29 WHIP with the Tigers vs. 3.75 ERA/1.35 WHIP career). However, the Tigers' claim seems to stem from his postseason success, during which he pitched to a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Sanchez's ability to carry over anything like his postseason statistics into the 2013 regular season will determine if the righty can live up to his new monster deal. Giving up almost four runs per nine innings does not translate to $16 million a year. One indicator that Sanchez has going for him is his OPS allowed. In 2012, he allowed a .716 OPS (.714 with the Tigers), placing him as the 50th best in MLB in that category. That would translate to him slotting as a number two or three starter for his team. With aces receiving an AAS of around $20 million almost yearly, this would make Sanchez's contract pretty fair for the Tigers, a team for who he will slot in at fourth in the rotation. 

Keep in mind Sanchez is also 28, meaning that at his contract's end he will still only be 33. He will not be getting paid major money through the twilight of his career, like certain other pitchers who have signed major deals (Burnett is a prime example.) The Tigers were smart in at least the length of the deal, and in a year where big-time contracts have been handed out like they were going out of style, GM Dave Dombrowski could have given a similar deal to a worse pitcher. Sanchez is far from a definite, but I think the notion that he is being vastly overpaid is a bit too harsh. Sanchez is a better pitcher than Lackey or Burnett, and is maybe slightly worse than C.J. Wilson. Wilson, however, has much more responsibility as the number two starter behind Jered Weaver. Again, statistically, if Sanchez can find his performance closer to his postseason than his regular season, he will live up to his contract. If he can put it all together and continue to perform well in the postseason, he may actually surpass his monetary value.